In the summer economic forecasts published on 7 July, Brussels repeats the spring projections for Portugal, released on 12 May, considering that "the Portuguese economy is on track for a good recovery from the second quarter of 2021 onwards," despite the pace of recovery having been slowed by the partial re-establishment of temporary restrictions in June due to the increase in cases of Covid-19.

The EU executive estimates, however, that after a 3.2 percent setback in the first quarter of the year due to strict confinement, Portugal's gross domestic product (GDP) will have grown by 3.3 percent in the second quarter and will register a new increase in the third quarter, with the expected increase in foreign tourism in the country, helped by the vaccination campaign in Europe and the launch of the EU Covid-19 digital certificate.

These forecasts still fall short of the projections of the Government, which is confident of growth above its own forecast of 4 percent included in the Stability Programme, as well as the most recent forecast of the Bank of Portugal, which on 16 June revised upwards its projections, anticipating a rise in GDP of 4.8 percent in 2021 and 5.6 percent in 2022.