For inflation, the institution led by Nazaré da Costa Cabral predicts an “acceleration in the inflation rate, measured by the HICP, to 7.7%”.
And why such a high value? “Inflation in 2022 should mainly reflect the expected dynamics for the price of food and energy in international markets, the depreciation of the euro and the maintenance of restrictions on the supply side”.
The Government has already said that this year it is working with an inflation scenario of 7.4%, as revealed by the Prime Minister in a recent interview with TVI. The 7.4% may be compatible with the 7.7% projected by the CFP as the latter institution accounts for inflation on a harmonised basis. António Costa did not specify whether the 7.4% of the Government is harmonised.
If the news for this year is not good regarding inflation, for 2023 the scenario is not very encouraging. The CFP anticipates inflation of 5.1% in 2023, which means that prices will continue to increase next year.
For GDP, this year, the institution led by Nazaré da Costa Cabral forecasts a growth of 6.7%, a figure even higher than the 6.4% with which the Government is working. For 2023, it estimates growth, but much more contained, of just 1.2%.